US retail imports expected to be up 4.8% in Jan

“Retailers are still assessing the holiday season, but they’re also looking ahead to see what will happen in the new year,” Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Based on these early numbers, 2014 looks like it should be off to a good start.”

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.37 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in November, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 4.3 percent from October as imports for the holiday season wound down but up 6.5 percent from November 2012. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

December was estimated at 1.35 million TEU, up 5 percent from 2012. If that estimate holds true once final numbers become available, 2013 will have totaled 16.3 million TEU, up 2.8 percent over 2012’s 15.8 billion TEU. That compares with 3.4 percent growth in 2012 over 2011.

The cargo numbers come as retailers are waiting to see final figures for 2013 holiday season sales, which NRF predicted would grow 3.9 percent to $602.1 billion. Imports during August, September and October, the months when most of the holiday season’s merchandise is brought into the country, totaled 4.35 million TEU, up 4.3 percent increase over 2012. Cargo figures do not correlate directly with sales because they count only the number of cargo containers, not the value of the merchandise inside, but are an indicator of retailers’ sales expectations.

January 2014 is forecast at 1.37 million TEU, up 4.8 percent from January 2013; February at 1.18 million TEU, down 7.5 percent from last year; March at 1.32 million TEU, up 15.9 percent; April at 1.4 million TEU, up 7.7 percent; and May at 1.46 million TEU, up 4.6 percent.

“The new year looks to be stronger than the outgoing one, with better-than-expected GDP figures, lower unemployment rates and continued low inflation,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Expectations of a stronger dollar will also help to increase consumer confidence as import prices continue to fall.”

NRF is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries. Retail is the nation’s largest private sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans.

National Retail Federation