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Kevin Anderson  Tyndall Centre University of Manchester  July 2011 Climate Change:  going beyond dangerous …  brutal numbers & tenuous hope or   cognitive dissonance?
…  explore the void   between     rhetoric   and reality  on   climate change mitigation
Before thinking of responses to climate change what ’s the question?
INTERNATIONAL ‘ To hold the increase in global temperature  below 2 degrees Celsius , and take action to meet this objective consistent with  science  and on the basis of  equity’ Copenhagen Accord (2009)
‘…  must  ensure global average temperature increases  do not exceed  preindustrial levels by more than  2°C ’ EU
UK “ average global temperatures  must   rise no more than 2°C ” Low Carbon Transition Plan  (2009)
So the question is clear: how do we ensure a good chance of staying  below 2 °C?
…  but why 2 °C ?
2001 2°C  ‘Guardrail ’ Dangerous Acceptable
2001 2009
2001 2009
Is 2°C – dangerous or extremely dangerous? Is 1°C the new 2°C?
…  what mitigation is necessary to stay at or below 2 °C  …  how do we split the global carbon budget between    Annex 1 (OECD) & non-Annex 1 (non-OECD)? …  sticking with 2 ° C
Emission-reduction targets  UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets UK ’s  80%     reduction in CO 2 e by 2050 EU  60%-80%   “ 2050 Bali  50%     “ 2050 CO 2  stays in atmosphere for 100+ years,
2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change  (2° C) cumulative  emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget) this fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change - from long term gradual reductions - to urgent & radical reductions …  so
How does this scientifically-credible approach change the challenge we face?
the latest emissions data factor in… what is the scale of the global ‘problem’ we now face?
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007 ~ 5.6% p.a. 2009-2010 Things are getting worse! Global CO 2  emission trends?
What does: this failure to reduce emissions & the latest science on cumulative emissions Say about a 2 °C emissions reduction pathway?
early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year
2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882) Total greenhouse gas emission pathways
50:50 chance of Dangerous Climate Change (Global) Unprecedented reductions (~ 10%  pa from 2020) (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)
Even then total decarbonisation by ~2035-45 necessary …  and for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak) 13 of 18 scenarios ‘ impossible’ 10-20% annual reductions –  even for a high probability of  exceeding 2°C
Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only “ been associated with economic recession or upheaval” Stern 2006  UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions (ex. aviation & shipping) Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions What are the precedents for such reductions?
Growth rate to peak emissions  (1-2% CCC etc, real 3, 4% or higher) Peak year assumptions  (2010-2016; Stern 2015, CCC 2016) (China & India peak ~2017) Rate of emission reduction order of magnitude more challenging Technology (esp. supply) very limited to deliver in time for Annex 1  Socolow ’s Wedges are wrong way round (need early action) ‘ Net ’  Costs meaningless  (non-marginal mitigation & adaptation)   Why does this differ   from  ‘standard’ analyses?
If this all looks too difficult …  what about a  4°C  future?
For  4 °C  & emissions peaking by 2020  a   ~ 3.5%  p.a. reduction in CO 2  from energy is necessary ... & such a reduction rate is achievable so is aiming for 4°C more realistic?
For  4 °C  global mean surface temperature   5 °C - 6°C  global  land  mean …  &  increase  °C  on the hottest days of:   6 °C - 8°C  in China 8 °C - 10°C  in Central Europe 10 °C -12°C  in New York In low latitudes  4 °C   gives   up to  40% reduction  in maize & rice as population heads towards  9 billion  by 2050
There is a widespread view that a  4 °C  future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond  ‘ adaptation ’ , is devastating to the majority of eco-systems & has a high probability of not being stable  (i.e. 4 ° C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).  Consequently … 4°C should be avoided at  ‘ all ’  costs
A fair deal for non-OECD  (non-Annex 1) …  what ’s left for us  (OECD/Annex 1)  ?
Anderson-Bows: (CO 2  only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Growth 3.5% p.a Peak 2025 Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!) Anderson-Bows: (CO 2  only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Anderson-Bows: (CO 2  only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
Peak ~2010 Reduction  ∞ % p.a. Anderson-Bows: (CO 2  only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
But even this non-Annex 1 pathway is too optimistic? …  focus on China (& India)
China  emissions (CO2 only 2010) 7.5GtCO2  (25% global) GDP growth p.a.  (ten year trend) 10.5% p.a. India  emissions (CO2 only 2010) 1.65GtCO2  (6% global) GDP growth p.a. (ten year trend) 7.4% p.a. China & India emissions & growth
Can this continue… Shanghai & Beijing GDP/capita ~As OECD ~200M Chinese <$1.25/day ~350M Chinese $10-20/day China GDP/capita  (MER) ~5% OECD India GDP/capita  (MER) ~2% OECD India GDP/capita is ⅓ that of  China GDP/capita  (PPP) …  so lots of scope for growth in mean income & low wage industrialisation
Absolute emissions If China meets 12 th  Five Year Plan trends & promises, then: 2020 emissions  2 x 2010 ~15GtCO2   (i.e. 50% world 2010 figure) 2030 4 x 2010 ~30GtCO2  (i.e. same as world in 2010)
Are these numbers reasonable?   –  polled views of Chinese Energy & Climate Change expert community Emissions expected to peak 2030  (then plateau?) Minimum growth to peak  ~7%  (outlier -5% p.a.) Maximum reduction post peak  3.5% – 5% p.a. So are these  absolute  numbers reasonable? …  the ‘Chinese’ think so …  most ‘western’ modelers & scenario builders ‘imply’ not
…  add in India
India in 2020 & 2030? Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors:  Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor:  Carly Mclachlan Assume India: ~ matches China’s Carbon Intensity of GDP by 2020  (currently 34% lower) Its GDP trend continues India 2020 emissions ~3.4GtCO2 (2030 ~6.8 GtCO2 ) Are these numbers reasonable …  the ‘Indian’s’ think so  (peak estimate – post 2030) …  most ‘western’ modelers & scenario builders ‘imply’ not
Σ China & India … Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors:  Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor:  Carly Mclachlan Emission in 2020   18-19GtCO2  (~⅔  global 2010) Peak      ~2030 Population    ~40% of global figure GDP/capita   < 5% OECD in 2010 GDP growth    ~9% p.a.
Does all this matter? Currently  no  (?) global modeling & scenarios take serious note of China & India (ccc analysis & UK budgets premised on China & India peak ~2017) (~all low-carbon IAMs scenarios have 2005 –2016 peaks, & growth 1-2% p.a.) …  first impressions are that the numbers outlined here, or anything approaching them, have fundamental implications for mitigation/adaptation analysis & policy, globally and for all nations
2°C  …  a political & scientific  creed ?
“ It is  possible   to restrict warming to 2°C or less ..with at  least a 50% probability .”  AVOID (2009) For ~2°C  it is necessary  “  … the UK cut emissions by at least 80% ... by 2050 .  The good news is that reductions of that size are possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity . ”   CCC p.xiii & 7 (2009) “…  a low stabilisation target of 400ppm CO2e can be  achieved at moderate cost   … with … a high likelihood of achieving this goal.”  ADAM p.19 (2009) Orthodox view
“ …  it is difficult to envisage anything other than a  planned economic recession  being compatible with stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO 2 e.”  Anderson & Bows 2008 “ …  the 2015-16 global peaking date (CCC, Stern & ADAM) implies … a period of  prolonged austerity for Annex 1  nations and a rapid transition away from existing development patterns within non-Annex 1 nations. ”  Anderson & Bows 2011 An Alternative take from the same science
How do two such fundamentally different interpretations of the challenge arise from the same science?
EU  In summary Recent historical emissions sometimes ‘mistaken’ or ‘massaged’ Short-term emission growth seriously down played Peak year choice ‘Machiavellian’ & dangerously misleading Reduction rate universally dictated by economists Emissions floors poorly accounted for or understood Geoengineering widespread in low carbon scenarios Annex 1/non-Annex 1 emissions split neglected or hidden Assumptions about ‘Big’ technology naively optimistic We have a magician’s view of time & a linear view of problems ??
Have we got the  agency  to achieve the unprecedented reductions rates linked to an outside chance of 2 ° C ?  Before despairing …
10% reduction in emissions year on year 40% reduction by 2015 70%  2020 90+%  2030 To put some numbers on this  non-marginal challenge for energy Impossible ?  …  is living with a 4 ° C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?
AGENCY  Equity – a message of hope –  perhaps? Technology – how far, how fast & how soon?
Little chance of changing polices aimed at 6.85 billion …  but how many people need to make the necessary changes?
Pareto ’ s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population run this 3 times ~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
- who ’ s in the 1%? Climate scientists Climate journalists & pontificators OECD (& other) academics Anyone who gets on a plane For the UK anyone earning over  £30k
Are  we  (principally Annex 1 )  sufficiently concerned to …  make or have enforced substantial personal  sacrifices/changes to our lifestyles NOW ?
Technical AGENCY – another message of hope
Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Powerstation Transmission Electricity Consumption Light 10 50 54 120 133 The Electricity system Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term
Car efficiency (without rebound) UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km) EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out) 2010 BMW 3 series 160BHP diesel 109g/km 2010 VW, SKODA etc 85-99g/km 1998 Audi A2  3-litre  ~ 75g/km ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km   ~50% CO 2  reduction by 2020 with no new technology Reverse recent trends in occupancy  ~70% by 2020
To conclude …
Link between cumulative emissions & temp ’ is broadly correct Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions by 2025/30 There are rapid reductions in deforestation emissions Food emissions halve from today ’s values by 2050 No  ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur & Stern/CCC/IEA ’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved Uncomfortable implications of conservative assumptions 2 °C stabilisation is  virtually   impossible 4°C by 2050-2070 looks  ‘ likely ’   (could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+) If …
EU  So where does this leave us? Manchester Mandate mitigate for 2 °C, plan for 4°C mitigate for 4 °C, plan for 2°C Bows’ reflection  …  we’re heading for the worst of all worlds
But “…  this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.” Anderson & Bows.  Beyond ‘dangerous climate change Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Jan 2011
…  a final message of hope .. “ at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Roberto Unger
1-person living in 3 bedroom houses patio heaters 10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen 2 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3miles driving children to school  business tycoons with private jets
academics  flying to climate change conferences musicians flying to climate change concerts  celebrating the excesses of celebrities ‘ right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want  year-round strawberries hen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelona double door refrigerators & home cinema second homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs
& all with up to 9 billion people living on our planet!
Kevin Anderson  Tyndall Centre University of Manchester  July 2011 Climate Change:  going beyond dangerous …  brutal numbers & tenuous hope or   cognitive dissonance?

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Infrequent Flyer Slideshow Presentation by InfrequentFlyer, has 58 slides with 1047 views.This document summarizes the significant environmental impact of air travel and its contribution to climate change. It notes that a single long-haul return flight can represent an individual's largest carbon footprint for the year. While air travel accounts for a small percentage of reported emissions, the true impact is much larger once radiative forcing is accounted for, meaning air travel has two to three times the warming impact than carbon emissions alone. The document argues that most air travel is recreational rather than essential, and that the only way to meaningfully reduce aviation's climate impact is to fly less and embrace slower, more sustainable forms of transportation. It is critical to address the growing emissions of the aviation industry given its projected growth rates and impact on global warming.
Infrequent Flyer Slideshow PresentationInfrequent Flyer Slideshow Presentation
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Church 25 1,2 by Jennifer Walker, has 16 slides with 399 views.The document discusses Derek Webb's thoughts on church. According to Webb, if community is separated from the gospel, then it stops being the gospel. Additionally, if one claims to love Jesus, then they will feel compelled to love others. Webb believes church is not about behavior modification, but allowing the Holy Spirit to work within believers and change them as they live in community with one another. The document provides definitions of "church" and matches scripture passages to those definitions. It also discusses how the church began at Pentecost and involves other people besides Peter in building the early church.
Church 25 1,2Church 25 1,2
Church 25 1,2
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Gift of the nile ch by Jennifer Walker, has 10 slides with 686 views.The document summarizes key aspects of geography and civilization in ancient Egypt. It describes the Nile River, which flows northward through Egypt and empties into the Mediterranean Sea, depositing fertile silt lands. It notes the distinction between the dark, fertile "Black Land" near the Nile and the surrounding desert "Red Land." It also briefly outlines Egyptian crops, architecture, climate, and early use of metals like copper, gold, and iron.
Gift of the nile chGift of the nile ch
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Regional water info systems Jauad El Kharraz by WANA forum, has 37 slides with 927 views.The document discusses developing water information systems in Western Asia and North Africa (WANA) countries to help cope with water scarcity and drought issues. It recommends setting up a common set of water scarcity and drought indicators agreed upon by WANA countries to improve data collection and sharing of information. Establishing a WANA drought information system and increasing regional cooperation on water management are also suggested to help countries better plan for and mitigate impacts of water scarcity and drought events.
Regional water info systems Jauad El KharrazRegional water info systems Jauad El Kharraz
Regional water info systems Jauad El Kharraz
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Towards an understanding of livestock water productivity in the Nile River Basin by ILRI, has 21 slides with 682 views.A presentation prepared by A. Astatke, D. Peden, K. Sonder, W. Ayalneh, G. Tadesse, G.H. Kiwuwa, F. Ahmed, M. Abdel-Meguid, and T. Kumsa for the CPWF Workshop, Entebbe, 27 November to 1 December 2005.
Towards an understanding of livestock water productivity in the Nile River BasinTowards an understanding of livestock water productivity in the Nile River Basin
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604 egypt by pandorast, has 26 slides with 585 views.The Nile River flows through Egypt and has supported civilizations there for over 5,000 years by providing fertile land and resources. The annual flooding of the Nile deposited rich silt that allowed for highly productive agriculture. This dependence on the Nile led the Greek historian Herodotus to call Egypt "the Gift of the Nile." Modern Egypt continues to rely on the Nile through the Aswan High Dam, which generates electricity and provides irrigation.
604 egypt604 egypt
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ancient-egypt by sorenarya, has 36 slides with 1077 views.The document provides information about ancient Egypt, including its geography along the Nile River valley, how the Egyptians relied on the Nile for resources, and the unification of Upper and Lower Egypt under King Narmer around 3100 BC. It then discusses the Old Kingdom period from 2600-2300 BC when Egypt grew wealthy and powerful under all-powerful pharaohs. The Egyptians built large pyramids such as the Great Pyramid at Giza to serve as tombs for pharaohs, reflecting their beliefs about life after death.
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The river nile. by Chelsea_Marie_Zammit, has 9 slides with 393 views.The two main tributaries of the Nile River are the White Nile, which originates from Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, which flows from the mountains of East Africa. These two rivers meet at the city of Khartoum and flow north through Egypt, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and sanitation, before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. Dams help control flooding along the river, while tourists visit the Nile Valley to travel by boat and see ancient temples and pyramids.
The river nile.The river nile.
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Mis 1 by Sowmini Gowda, has 40 slides with 975 views.The document provides an introduction to computers, describing what a computer is, what it can do, and its basic components. It explains that a computer accepts data as input, processes it, and produces information as output. It then describes the typical devices that make up a computer system, including input devices like keyboards and mice, output devices like monitors and printers, and storage devices like hard disks and CD drives. It provides details on the central processing unit and memory. It also discusses operating systems, applications software, and the role of information systems.
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WISE - Water Information System of Europe - Ground Truth - European Rivers by Walter Simonazzi, has 20 slides with 373 views.This document describes a pilot case to inherit attributes from Article 13 data into the WISE Main Rivers (WMR) and WISE Main Lakes (WML) databases for the Loire and Weser basins in France and Germany. It compares the WMR and WML geometries and attributes to the Article 13 reported data and evaluates two methods for inheriting attributes: intersection of lines and attributes, or by common attribute names. It provides example visualizations of the inherited attributes for various rivers and lakes in the two basins.
WISE - Water Information System of Europe - Ground Truth - European RiversWISE - Water Information System of Europe - Ground Truth - European Rivers
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Thenile by cayetana vega, has 11 slides with 869 views.The Nile River was crucial to the development of Ancient Egypt. It is the longest river in the world and flows through several African countries. The annual flooding of the Nile made the surrounding land extremely fertile, allowing Ancient Egyptians to develop agriculture along the river valley. Egyptians built infrastructure like dams and canals to control the flooding and use the Nile for transportation of goods and people. The reliable flooding and fertility of the land supported the growth of Egyptian civilization for over 5,000 years.
ThenileThenile
Thenile
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Overview of National Water Information System (NWIS) (Trapanese) by Iwl Pcu, has 22 slides with 584 views.Presentation given during the USGS/IAEA/IW:LEARN groundwater learning exchange in the US April 14-26, 2007. Susan Trapanese Chief of National Water Information System April 17, 2007
Overview of National Water Information System (NWIS) (Trapanese)Overview of National Water Information System (NWIS) (Trapanese)
Overview of National Water Information System (NWIS) (Trapanese)
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Gift of the nile ch. 5 lesson1 by Jennifer Walker, has 38 slides with 1077 views.The Nile River was essential to ancient Egypt, flowing north from near the equator through Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. It provided water, deposited fertile silt after regular flooding, and was used for transportation, enabling trade. The delta was the most fertile region where the Nile emptied into the sea, while the desert outside the floodplain was called the "Red Land". Farming involved irrigation canals and tools to spread water. Egyptians grew crops like wheat and flax and were the first to grind wheat into flour for bread.
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The Egyptians Of The Nile River Valley by mrgibbs, has 19 slides with 3369 views.The document discusses several key aspects of ancient Egyptian civilization along the Nile River Valley. It notes that the predictable flooding of the Nile and protection by surrounding deserts made the valley suitable for agriculture. It describes how King Menes unified Egypt around 3200 BC, and how the Hyksos later conquered Egypt for about 150 years before native Egyptians regained control. The document then outlines the roles of pharaohs, peasants, soldiers, scribes, artisans in Egyptian society and how the pyramids served as tombs for pharaohs and required great engineering skills to build.
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24032025_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf by FIRST INDIA, has 12 slides with 6 views.Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India. CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/ #First_India_NewsPaper
24032025_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf24032025_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
24032025_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
FIRST INDIA
12 slides6 views
THE ADVANCE OF NATIONALISM AND NEOFASCISM IN THE WORLD AS CONSEQUENCE OF THE ... by Faga1939, has 12 slides with 17 views.This article aims to demonstrate that the decline in global profitability of capital since 1998 contributed to the crisis of neoliberal globalization, the dire consequences of which contributed to the rise of nationalism and the neofascist far right in the world. This article analyzes the crisis of neoliberal globalization with the decline in global profitability of capital since 1998, the dire consequences of neoliberal globalization in all quadrants of the Earth, the rise of nationalism as a result of the harmful consequences of neoliberal globalization, and the rise of the neofascist far right in the world as a result of the harmful consequences of neoliberal globalization.
THE ADVANCE OF NATIONALISM AND NEOFASCISM IN THE WORLD AS CONSEQUENCE OF THE ...THE ADVANCE OF NATIONALISM AND NEOFASCISM IN THE WORLD AS CONSEQUENCE OF THE ...
THE ADVANCE OF NATIONALISM AND NEOFASCISM IN THE WORLD AS CONSEQUENCE OF THE ...
Faga1939
12 slides17 views
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State... by ResolutionFoundation, has 17 slides with 205 views.The Chancellor set out her first ever Budget less than five months ago, but the UK’s economic outlook has changed considerably since then. Bad news on growth, inflation and borrowing point to a deterioration in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, leaving the chances of Rachel Reeves meeting her own ‘non-negotiable’ fiscal rules on a knife edge. The Spring Statement is starting to feel a lot like a Spring Budget…
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...
ResolutionFoundation
17 slides205 views
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...
Spring cleaning the public finances - Assessing the Chancellor’s Spring State...
ResolutionFoundation
 

Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

Editor's Notes

  • #13: 2 to 2 °C
  • #45: “ scientists” to “scientists’ ”
  • #46: Quotation marks added to first quote for consistency
  • #49: Added space between bullets and text, slightly enlarged purple text
  • #62: “ Bow’s” to “Bows’ ”, added commas